Draft Success of all Teams in NHL History: 1963-2002

The following is a list of all the teams in NHL history and a study of their draft success, from 1963 through the 2002 draft. Statistics include average games played in the NHL of drafted players (regular season only) as well as the number of NHL players picked per draft year. I will also show the teams' Stanley Cup wins from 1964 through 2003. Even if the drafted player doesn't stay on the team, this is a way of showing which teams have the best drafting instincts. The source of my data is hockeyDB, and I will only be counting drafts through 2002, as using the 2003 and 2004 drafts would skew the results since nearly all of these draftees haven't had a chance of playing in the NHL. There are 41 total teams documented, and, at the end of the article, I list franchises together if applicable. Conditions: Playing in the WHA is admirable, but doesn't count for this study. Just as teams' statistics will be hurt if they were around during the WHA of the 1970's, so will teams who don't have their 2002 draft picks active. This is why, when comparing teams, we must consider the situations during their respective histories. In other words, we can't blindly compare the Original Six Detroit Red Wings to the fledgling Ottawa Senators and expect a concrete conclusion. Draft success can't be extrapolated into overall success, as teams don't necessarily have to keep a draftee. In addition, other teams can buy out good drafting teams, and teams with good drafting instincts can have bad instincts in managing prospects after the summer draft. Another factor I considered was that some players have been drafted twice. I gave credit to all teams who picked the player, even if the player only made the NHL after the second/third/etc. drafting. This is giving credit for the initial good drafting instinct, but forgiving later circumstances for the sake of this focused study The larger goal of this study is to see whether the statistical law of averages applies in NHL drafting. Or, in other words, do draft picks average out to a universal result throughout the league, or is there such a thing as good drafting instincts? And which teams have a golden touch when it comes to dipping their ladles into the pool of NHL prospects and coming out with a gem? Vintage 1. Quebec Nordiques (1979-1994): 97/182 [53.3%] made NHL, 175.1 average games played [31,868 total games] - 16 draft years, 6.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 2. Hartford Whalers (1979-1996): 79/178 [44.4%] made NHL, 157.1 average games played [27,959 total games] - 18 draft years, 4.4 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 3. Buffalo Sabres (1970-2004): 168/347 [48.4%] made NHL, 147.2 average games played [51,067 total games] - 33 draft years, 5.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 4. Winnipeg Jets (1979-1995): 93/196 [47.4%] made NHL, 146.94 average games played [28,800 total games] - 17 draft years, 5.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 5. Montreal Canadiens (1963-2004): 191/461 [41.4%] made NHL, 146.92 average games played [67,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.8 NHL players/draft - 12 Stanley Cups 6. New-Jersey Devils (1982-2004): 112/239 [46.9%] made NHL, 143.2 average games played [34,225 total games] - 21 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups 7. Boston Bruins (1963-2004): 154/346 [44.5%] made NHL, 139.2 average games played [48,173 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 8. New-York Rangers (1963-2004): 166/403 [41.2%] made NHL, 135.7 average games played [54,686 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup 9. New-York Islanders (1972-2004): 147/351 [41.9%] made NHL, 132.3 average games played [46,447 total games] - 31 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 4 Stanley Cups 10. Toronto Maple Leafs (1963-2004): 160/368 [43.5%] made NHL, 131.5 average games played [48,381 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 11. Detroit Red Wings (1963-2004): 141/372 [37.9%] made NHL, 125.8 average games played [46,801 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups 12. Vancouver Canucks (1970-2004): 139/321 [43.3%] made NHL, 125.3 average games played [40,210 total games] - 23 draft years, 6.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 13. Philadelphia Flyers (1967-2004): 141/359 [39.3%] made NHL, 114. 3 average games played [41,031 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 14. Chicago Blackhawks (1963-2004): 140/364 [38.5%] made NHL, 111.9 average games played [40,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 15. Minnesota North Stars (1967-1992): 109/261 [41.8%] made NHL, 109.6 average games played [28,615 total games] - 26 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 16. Calgary Flames (1980-2004): 101/262 [38.5%] made NHL, 109.0 average games played [28,568 total games] - 23 draft years, 4.4 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup 17. Washington Capitals (1974-2004): 137/322 [42.5%] made NHL, 106.5 average games played [34,306 total games] - 29 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 18. Pittsburgh Penguins (1967-2004): 151/338 [44.7%] made NHL, 106.2 average games played [35,887 total games] - 36 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 19. Los-Angeles Kings (1967-2004): 134/323 [41.5%] made NHL, 103.5 average games played [33,432 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 20. Edmonton Oilers (1979-2004): 98/259 [37.8%] made NHL, 102.3 average games played [26,493 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.1 NHL players/draft - 5 Stanley Cups 21. St. Louis Blues (1968-2004): 128/350 [36.6%] made NHL, 99.5 average games played [34,840 total games] - 25 draft years, 5.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups Original Six 1. Montreal Canadiens (1963-2004): 191/461 [41.4%] made NHL, 146.9 average games played [67,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.8 NHL players/draft - 12 Stanley Cups 2. Boston Bruins (1963-2004): 154/346 [44.5%] made NHL, 139.2 average games played [48,173 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 3. New-York Rangers (1963-2004): 166/403 [41.2%] made NHL, 135.7 average games played [54,686 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup 4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1963-2004): 160/368 [43.5%] made NHL, 131.5 average games played [48,381 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 5. Detroit Red Wings (1963-2004): 141/372 [37.9%] made NHL, 125.8 average games played [46,801 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups 6. Chicago Blackhawks (1963-2004): 140/364 [38.5%] made NHL, 111.9 average games played [40,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups Recent Additions 1. San Jose Sharks (1991-2004): 46/112 [41.1%] made NHL, 100.8 average games played [11,285 total games] - 12 draft years, 3.8 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 2. Ottawa Senators (1992-2004): 47/107 [43.9%] made NHL, 83.8 average games played [8,965 total games] - 11 draft years, 4.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 3. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (1993-2004): 37/82 [45.1%] made NHL, 76.2 average games played [6,250 total games] - 10 draft years, 3.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 4. Florida Panthers (1993-2004): 40/99 [40.4%] made NHL, 73.7 average games played [7,293 total games] - 10 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 5. Tampa-Bay Lightning (1992-2004): 38/117 [32.5%] made NHL, 58.1 average games played [6,800 total games] - 11 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 6. Colorado Avalanche (1995-2004): 36/86 [41.9%] made NHL, 57.1 average games played [4,908 total games] - 8 draft years, 4.5 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups 7. Dallas Stars (1993-2004): 30/94 [31.9%] made NHL, 46.5 average games played [4,368 total games] - 10 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup 8. Minnesota Wild (2000-2004): 10/26 [38.5%] made NHL, 37.7 average games played [981 total games] - 3 draft years, 3.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 9. Carolina Hurricanes (1997-2004): 18/48 [37.5%] made NHL, 37.1 average games played [1,781 total games] - 6 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 10. Nashville Predators (1998-2004): 17/52 [32.7%] made NHL, 35.8 average games played [1,859 total games] - 5 draft years, 3.4 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 11. Phoenix Coyotes (1996-2004): 19/61 [31.1%] made NHL, 30.0 average games played [1,833 total games] - 7 draft years, 2.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 12. Atlanta Thrashers (1999-2004): 12/44 [27.3%] made NHL, 27.0 average games played [1,190 total games] - 4 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 13. Columbus Blue Jackets (2000-2004): 9/35 [25.7%] made NHL, 17.8 average games played [622 total games] - 3 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups Short-Lived Leftovers 1. California Seals (1974-1976): 14/26 [53.8%] made NHL, 164.2 average games played [4,270 total games] - 3 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 2. Atlanta Flames (1972-1979): 39/78 [50%] made NHL, 162.3 average games played [12,659 total games] - 8 draft years, 4.9 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 3. Kansas-City Scouts (1974-1976): 13/26 [50%] made NHL, 142.7 average games played [3,709 total games] - 3 draft years, 4.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 4. Colorado Rockies (1977-1981): 28/45 [62.2%] made NHL, 135.6 average games played [6,101 total games] - 5 draft years, 5.6 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 5. California Golden Seals (1970-1973): 21/34 [61.8%] made NHL, 108.1 average games played [3,676 total games] - 4 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 6. Oakland Seals (1967-1969): 5/12 [41.7%] made NHL, 98.8 average games played [1,185 total games] - 3 draft years, 1.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups 7. Cleveland Barons (1977): 5/9 [55.6%] made NHL, 88.8 average games played [799 total games] - 1 draft year, 5.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups Overall Individual Teams The following is an overall listing of all the above teams and their respective average games played per draftee: 1. Quebec Nordiques (175.1) 2. California Seals (164.2) 3. Atlanta Flames (162.3) 4. Hartford Whalers (157.1) 5. Buffalo Sabres (147.2) 6. Winnipeg Jets (146.94) 7. Montreal Canadiens (146.92) 8. New-Jersey Devils (143.2) 9. Kansas-City Scouts (142.7) 10. Boston Bruins (139.2) 11. New-York Rangers (135.7) 12. Colorado Rockies (135.6) 13. New-York Islanders (132.3) 14. Toronto Maple Leafs (131.5) 15. Detroit Red Wings (125.8) 16. Vancouver Canucks (125.3) NHL AVERAGE (118.2) 17. Philadelphia Flyers (114.3) 18. Chicago Blackhawks (111.9) 19. Minnesota North Stars (109.6) 20. Calgary Flames (109.0) 21. California Golden Seals (108.1) 22. Washington Capitals (106.5) 23. Pittsburgh Penguins (106.2) 24. Los-Angeles Kings (103.5) 25. Edmonton Oilers (102.3) 26. San Jose Sharks (100.8) 27. St. Louis Blues (99.5) 28. Oakland Seals (98.8) 29. Cleveland Barons (88.8) 30. Ottawa Senators (83.8) 31. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (76.2) 32. Florida Panthers (73.7) 33. Tampa-Bay Lightning (58.1) 34. Colorado Avalanche (57.1) 35. Dallas Stars (46.5) 36. Minnesota Wild (37.7) 37. Carolina Hurricanes (37.1) 38. Nashville Predators (35.8) 39. Phoenix Coyotes (30.0) 40. Atlanta Thrashers (27.0) 41. Columbus Blue Jackets (17.8) Total Players Drafted: 7,791 Total Players Made NHL: 3,266 (41.9% of draftees play at least one NHL game) Total Games: 920,779

NHL Average, Games Played per Draftee: 118.2

NHL Average, NHL Players/Draft: 4.1 Franchise Mode

The following is an overall listing of all the above teams, with some shown as a single franchise that moved from city to city:

Quebec Nordiques (1979-1994) + Colorado Avalanche (1995-2004) = 133/268 [49.6%] made NHL, 137.2 average games played [36,776 total games] - 24 draft years, 5.5 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

Minnesota North Stars (1967-1992) + Dallas Stars (1993-2004) = 139/355 [39.2%] made NHL, 92.9 average games played [32,983 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cups

Hartford Whalers (1979-1996) + Carolina Hurricanes (1997-2004) = 97/226 [42.9%] made NHL, 131.6 average games played [29,740 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Winnipeg Jets (1979-1995) + Phoenix Coyotes (1996-2004) = 112/257 [43.6%] made NHL, 119.2 average games played [30,633 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Atlanta Flames (1972-1979) + Calgary Flames (1980-2004) = 140/340 [41.2%] made NHL, 121.3 average games played [41,227 total games] - 31 draft years, 4.5 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

Kansas-City Scouts (1974-1976) + Colorado Rockies (1977-1981) + New-Jersey Devils (1982-2004) = 153/310 [49.4%] made NHL, 142.0 average games played [44,035 total games] - 29 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

Oakland Seals (1967-1969) + California Golden Seals (1970-1973) + California Seals (1974-1976) + Cleveland Barons (1977) = 45/81 [55.6%] made NHL, 122.6 average games played [9,930 total games] - 11 draft years, 4.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

This is what the standings look like when these figures are adjusted:

Overall Franchise Ranking

1. Buffalo Sabres (147.2) 2. Montreal Canadiens (146.92) 3. Kansas-City Scouts + Colorado Rockies + New-Jersey Devils (142.0) 4. Boston Bruins (139.2) 5. Quebec Nordiques + Colorado Avalanche (137.2) 6. New-York Rangers (135.7) 7. New-York Islanders (132.3) 8. Hartford Whalers + Carolina Hurricanes (131.6) 9. Toronto Maple Leafs (131.5) 10. Detroit Red Wings (125.8) 11. Vancouver Canucks (125.3) 12. Oakland Seals + California Golden Seals + California Seals + Cleveland Barons (122.6) 13. Atlanta Flames + Calgary Flames (121.3) 14. Winnipeg Jets + Phoenix Coyotes (119.2) NHL AVERAGE (118.2) 15. Philadelphia Flyers (114.3) 16. Chicago Blackhawks (111.9) 17. Washington Capitals (106.5) 18. Pittsburgh Penguins (106.2) 19. Los-Angeles Kings (103.5) 20. Edmonton Oilers (102.3) 21. San Jose Sharks (100.8) 22. St. Louis Blues (99.5) 23. Minnesota North Stars + Dallas Stars (92.9) 24. Ottawa Senators (83.8) 25. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (76.2) 26. Florida Panthers (73.7) 27. Tampa-Bay Lightning (58.1) 28. Minnesota Wild (37.7) 29. Nashville Predators (35.8) 30. Atlanta Thrashers (27.0) 31. Columbus Blue Jackets (17.8)

Analysis

In looking at the results, one should do more than a one-dimension analysis of the standings. As mentioned in the "Conditions" section above, there are many factors that work in bringing about a Stanley Cup champion.

The St Louis Blues are ranked 22/31 overall (21/21 Vintage) and are one of the worst drafting long-time franchises. Their 99.5 average games played per draftee is well below the league average of 118.2, and their 5.1 NHL players/draft is above the league average of 4.1. These figures represent a problem in the Blues' franchise: an inability in getting long-time NHLers in the draft. And, in their case, bad drafting partly translated to no Stanley Cups in their team history, with the Red Wings' dominance also playing a big part in the Arched City's Cup woes.

Looking at the Winnipeg Jets (4 Vintage) and Montreal Canadiens (5 Vintage), their average games played per draftee are near identical (146.94 and 146.92). Then average NHL player/draft: the Jets averaged 5.5 and the Canadiens averaged 4.8. The Jets had 47.4% of their picks make the NHL, while the Canadiens 41.4%. If the Jets had made 461 picks over 40 years (as the Canadiens did) they were on pace to net 218.7 NHLers, compared to the Canadiens' 191. So the Jets look to be the better drafting team, although it's hard to argue against 12 Stanley Cups between 1964 and 2003.

All conditions isolated, if it takes the Jets the 218.7/461 picks to stay even with the Canadiens with respect to the average games played per draftee figure, sure, they still have a better percentage of their players making the NHL. But there is a larger issue at hand: the Jets' 5.5 average NHL players/draft when compared to the Canadiens' 4.8 reveals much about the quality of draftees. It reflects that the Jets are not getting as many long-time NHLers as the Canadiens, who, on average, are getting more games from the guys who make the NHL. The Jets extrapolated to 40 years of drafting would have an average of 309.7 games/NHLer, compared to the Canadiens' 354.6. So the Canadiens get the nod, and number two overall in the franchise ranking shows a lot.

Looking at the Vintage Teams, which are the primary focus of this study anyway, I will try to find a correlation between draft success and Cup success. The league average of games played per draftee is 118.2. There are 10 Cups below this mark, 27 above, and 3 in the recent additions (2 Avs, 1 Stars). So 25% of the Cups between 1964 and 2003 were below the league average for drafting, 67.5% above, and 7.5% were recent additions. So it definitely helps to be a good drafting team, but I am not going to say that there is a direct correlation between Cup wins and draft success. In my statistics class in high school, I learned that correlations between variables must be qualified, just in case there are lurking variables also affecting an outcome. Surely in this case, other factors affect a team's Cup chances. So I will stick with saying that a team has a better chance to win the Cup if it is on the good side of the league average for drafting, based on strict probability.

Looking at where the Wings stand (11/21 Vintage, 10/31 Overall), with 125.8 average games played and 37.9% of picks making the NHL, one must understand that the WHA and Dead Wings Era hurt the Wings' statistics. While tabulating the data, I saw the Wings' stature jump considerably from 1983 (Steve Yzerman drafting) on. In a follow-up study, I will go into greater detail on the drafting success of the Detroit Red Wings, highlighting their best drafting years and analyze why their average stands where it does. One of my motivations in researching this topic was to see where the Wings take their place among other teams in NHL history, so I will break down the Wings' 40 years of drafting in the follow-up.

My conclusion in this draft study is that there clearly is such a thing as good drafting instinct, and that some teams are definitely better than others. Also, being a team which possesses this mysterious drafting ability gives one a much better chance at winning the Cup. Finally, even if one is doing well with their average games played per draftee figure, the average NHL players/draft year figure shows whether a team is taking long-time NHLers or people who have a cup of coffee in the league.

Link

Check out this draft study done by two economics professors at McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario). You'll need to have Adobe Acrobat, as it is a pdf file.